What happened? And is it "over," again?

I will admit today that I should have been covering the blow by blow of this very interestingPresidential race but the fact that I haven't isn't an indication that I lost interest, rather that things have changed on almost a weekly basis and I have, indeed, found it hard to keep up in a manner that most professional journalists certainly have. And I'm sorry for that.

It's been awhile since I last posted and events have not exactly gone as I predicted they would, an occupational hazard to be sure, but I'm certainly not alone in that. When last I wrote I tried to explain how I believed the very complex process of nominating an American President would progress and what the important dates were to keep an eye on.

Here's what went wrong. It has been known for some time, based on the ideological split within the GOP (about 40% - 60%, moderate to conservative), that the winner of the Republican nomination would be either Mitt Romney or someone else who could finally manage to unite the conservative opposition to the Massachusestts Governor. At the time of my last post, it appeared almost certain that whether Romney won Florida or not, Gingrich would be that alternative. I also underestimated the degree to which both religious affinity and Romney's savvy at pursuading voters that he's somehow conservative, would allow him to prevail in those Western caucus states that Gingrich desperately needed to rebound from losing Florida, force Santorum out, unite the conservative majority and go on to upset Romney in Michigan and take the lead.

Then a couple of things changed. First, a recount in Iowa, 18 days after the vote, moved Rick Santorum from 8 votes down to over 25 ahead of Romney, which meant he had prevailed there after all. This meant that for those dissatisfied with Newt, Santorum now qualified as a contender. Second, Gingrich and his team undersestimated what this meant (as did I) believing they already had Romney all to themselves, that they could skip the whole month of February (of which I was, however, VERY skeptical) and pursue a Southern strategy in March to retake the initiative. This breaks a cardinal rule of the old primary politics, in that, to win, you have to not only dominate your own region, but move as quickly as possible to compete in your opponents' backyard. Romney had already done this by besting Gingrich in Florida and now, by conceding the West, Gingrich was giving Santorum the opportunity to edge Romney in Colorado, which he did, and was surpassed as a result. And to add insult to injury, Santorum was poised to compete on Gingrich's Southern turf as well.

What continues to help Romney is that even though Santorum has emerged as his leading opponent, Gingrich is still taking votes he desperately needs to overtake the front-runner, with the result that where a single alternative could have snatched Michigan, Romney instead edges Santorum by 3 points and again in Ohio by less than a fraction of 1 percent. And although Gingrich has failed to win any more than his own state, by dividing the Southern vote with Santorum, he's helped Romney take a share of the delegates there too, where they can least afford to lose.
Presidential primaries are very unusual in that there are no real rules for how to win, only precedents for how candidates have succeeded in the past. The "rules,"for success are ENTIRELY subjective. Every pundit has their own analysis. Right now the assumption is that Romney has the nomination locked up because his opposition remains divided. But if either one drops out, the other could benefit immensely and there are even signs that Gingrich is contemplating how he can have the biggest impact now that he's been routed in his own backyard. But the uncertainty of this dynamic is why news outlets are always hyping the significance of the next state only to have the process continue on for what seems like FOREVER.
A word you'll often hear in discussions of primary politics is, 'momentum.' The idea being that candidates who beat the conventional wisdom of how they are supposed to do benefit from this publicity in ways far greater than the handful of delegates at stake in Iowa or New Hampshire. Based on comparisons with previous campaigns, candidates who, "beat the expectations," obtain a huge windfall in both campaign cash and press coverage. What's more they go from being the primary equivalent of the, "also ran," the Libertarian, Green, or other fringe candidate, to being a contender.
And in effect, the opposite is true as well. Failure to meet expectations tends to dampen cash, press covereage, and voter turnout. Tomorrow is Wisconsin and based on Romney's victories in Michigan and Ohio he's expected to win again. Certainly there is little evidence to the contrary. The calendar is also not Santorum's friend. If he does lose there tomorrow, that will mean three weeks of unfavorable analysis until the next primaries in New York. Pennsylvania, etc. and indications are that Santorum is even struggling there as well. And if Newt's losing in states neighboring his native Georgia disqualify him, Santorum losing his native Pennsylvania would be the kiss of death.
So is it really over? Maybe. As long as this remains a three-way race, the odds of Romney winning are insurmountable. But, as the primary results imply, a majority of Republicans still oppose Romney so if anything could cause one of them to get out, Romney might, all of a sudden, start to lose primaries. And there are quite a few still left. Anyone remember Obama vs. Clinton? It's only the assumption this won't happen that encourages the press to assume the race is already over. But one-on-one either Gingrich or Santorum would probably defeat Romney decsively. And if one or the other won a majority of the vote in Texas (May 29th) Romney just wouldn't have enough delegates to be nominated on his own at the convention, and all bets would be off.

And either one could do it. If Newt's declining vote share were to result in Santorum winning Wisconsin, Santorum winning the, "expectations game," would put increased pressure by conservatives on Newt to cede the field. Or Santorum could lose his own Pennsylvania shaming him out of the race and Newt comes back to life. It's still possible.

And I'll even go out on a limb and say it's likely. This is the kind of thing that happens when campaigns declare victory too early. And there simply is no modern precedent for what has transpired so far in this Republican race.

Anything could still happen. Nothing..... All hell breaking loose..... Or, more likely, something indecisive in between.

It's not over yet.