Is Florida end of the line for Newt? Don't bet on it.

Well, yet another primary day is upon us and once again hyperbole abounds as to what the results will mean for the Republicans.  A week ago the Republican establishment began to hyperventilate at the prospect of a Gingrich juggernaut sweeping from South Carolina to Florida and on to the nomination.  Of course, a week before that, his candidacy was, "dead."

Now the blogosphere has declared that if Romney wins Florida as polls suggest he will: "THE RACE IS OVER!!!"  Leave it to the partisans of the establishment to go to extremes once again.  It's o.k. Romneyites, we understand.  If the establishment loses it's hold on the GOP to it's conservative base
all heck will break lose.  Can't let that happen, now can we?

But let's apply a little perspective to what is turning out to be quite an extraordinary campaign.  First of all, as Newt has said, he's in the race to the convention.  He's not going away.  Having won South Carolina by 12 points, Gingrich is now a contender.  If Rick Santorum drops out his voters may not be so inclined to vote for Romney.  In fact, many of them fit the same profile as those who supported Mike Huckabee 4 years ago and the two of them never quite reconciled.  Ron Paul will probably stay in, fighting for more delegates, hoping for a brokered convention between Newt and Romney. But of course, his supporters aren't voting for anyone else.  No one articulates the Libertarian viewpoint quite like Congressman Paul does.

Second, if Romney wins, his margin of victory will be scrutinized.  In current polls Romney has about 40-41 percent of the vote, while Newt has between 31 and 33 percent.  The vote is still close.  That leaves about 9 to 10 percent undecided which almost certainly consists of voters still hesitant to vote for Romney, but have spent the last week being deluged by anti-Newt ads desparately trying to convince them that Newt isn't conservative.   If Newt gets those 9 percent the result will be close.  If not, they'll probably break evenly to Gingrich, Romney, and Santorum.  After this week, if they haven't settled on Romney, they probably never will.

Third, there are still 46 other states that haven't voted.  February starts with a flurry of caucuses and ends with primaries in Michigan and Arizona.  Because caucus participants must actually drive some distance to a voting site and spend the evening there engaged in political organization and debate, they tend to be both more partisan and more ideological.  In this case, conservative.  Is Romney more conservative than Newt?  I'm not sure the Florida results will be determined on that basis, but the caucus results almost certainly will be.

The Michigan GOP is also more conservative than the party is in other parts of the Industrial Midwest and East where Romney must do well to be nominated.  If Newt wins Michigan, it would be considered a coup.  In fact, except for Arizona, Romney won every state four years ago, that is slated to vote in February.  A veritable minefield of opportunities for Gingrich to deal a psychologlical blow to his opponent.  Immigration, of course, will be the center-piece of the battle for Arizona and on this issue Romney may have the advantage of articulating the most conservative viewpoint.

So, just how far will this nomination battle go?  If Newt can take some states out of Romney's column in February he'll have the momentum to continue to Super Tuesday in March where most of the states are either in Gingrich's backyard in the South or Caucus states filled with conservative activists, mostly in the west.  Massachusetts also votes that day and should easily go to Romney, as should Ohio on the same day.  In fact both Ohio and Illinois, which votes a couple weeks after, have more liberal party organizations and are must wins for Romney.  If he doesn't, he's in trouble.

Two dates are of the utmost importance: Feb 28th and April 3rd.  In 2008, more than half the states voted on Super Tuesday.  California, New York, Illinois, Missouri, and just about every state in the Rocky Mountain West voted that day, but not in 2012.  Now, they all vote later.  So unless Newt is reversed in the South the race won't end on that day, as it has n every competitve pimary season for Republicans since 1988.  Florida, Michigan, and Texas will determine if the race goes all the way to June.  Texas votes on April 3rd.  If either candidate wins all 3, the race will effectively be over that day.  Newt needs Michigan on Feb 28th to prove, both that he's the more conservative candidate and that Romney's Mid-Western base isn't a lock for him.  If not, he's in trouble.

If Romney wins Florida on Tuesday, Texas becomes all important for Gingrich.  As the nation's 2nd largest state and the home of the last Republican President, Texas will prove if the establishment, represented by no one better than Mr. Bush, can take hold of the GOP's rank and file and end the contest early for Romney.  Should Gingrich add Texas to his Southern base of support despite losing Florida, the race will go all the way to California in June and Newt will be in the driver's seat.  From that point on it's all about delegates, fighting for every single state, and controlling the Convention in August.

At that point, a number of vulnerabilities will present themselves with Romney defending his base in New York, Pennsylvania, Connecticutt, Rhode Island, and Delaware.  Any losses here would further diminish him down the final stretch.  Wisconsin and Indiana could also prove difficult for Romney if Gingrich has managed to make it this far.

Is Florida the end of the line for Newt Gingrich?  It could prove once again to be pivotal in determining who becomes the next President of the United States.  But don't bet your life on it.